AB InBev has now delivered two consecutive quarters of beer-volume growth, supported by Latin America and strong demand for Corona, Stella Artois and Michelob Ultra. Yet weakness in China and the United States suggests that the recovery remains uneven.
Anheuser-Busch InBev entered 2026 facing a familiar challenge: could the world’s largest brewer finally generate growth from selling more beer rather than relying primarily on price increases, premium products and cost savings?
The company’s second-quarter results provided encouraging evidence. Beer volumes increased for a second consecutive quarter, revenue and profit exceeded expectations, and its international brands continued to outperform.
However, investors should not mistake an improving business for a synchronised global recovery. While Mexico, Colombia and Brazil are progressing, AB InBev continues to encounter significant difficulties in China and a challenging beer market in the United States.
The recovery appears to have begun—but it has not yet reached every part of the company.
AB InBev’s Q2 2026 results at a glance
| Metric | Q2 2026 result | Organic change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.66 billion | +5.6% |
| Normalised EBITDA | $5.94 billion | +5.8% |
| Total volumes | — | +0.9% |
| Beer volumes | — | +1.1% |
| Non-beer volumes | — | -1.1% |
| Underlying EPS | $1.21 | +23.4% |
AB InBev’s second-quarter revenue, profit and volumes all exceeded market forecasts. Total volumes increased by 0.9%, while beer volumes advanced by 1.1%. This followed a 0.8% increase in beer volumes during the first quarter, marking two consecutive quarters of positive growth. Reuters
For the first half of 2026, beer volumes increased by 1.2%. This is an important change because the group has often depended on higher prices and a more premium product mix to compensate for declining consumption.
Underlying earnings per share reached $1.21, an increase of 23.4%, while first-half free cash flow improved by approximately $2.5 billion to $3.88 billion. AB InBev Q2 results
The volume recovery is becoming more credible
One positive quarter can be explained by weather, calendar effects or easy comparisons. Two successive quarters of beer-volume growth provide stronger evidence that demand is stabilising.
AB InBev recorded its first quarterly increase in beverage volumes since 2023 during the first quarter of 2026. The improvement continued in Q2 despite continued economic uncertainty and weak consumer confidence in several markets. Reuters
This distinction matters for investors. Price increases can support revenue for a limited period, but persistent price-led growth eventually risks damaging affordability and market share. Volume growth is generally a healthier foundation for long-term earnings expansion.
The company is now combining three growth engines:
- A gradual improvement in beer volumes.
- Continued premiumisation through higher-value brands.
- Expansion into non-alcoholic beer, ready-to-drink beverages and digital distribution.
The recovery is therefore more substantial than a simple rebound from a weak quarter. Nevertheless, regional performance remains highly uneven.
Global brands are doing much of the heavy lifting
AB InBev’s international brands produced particularly strong growth outside their domestic markets during the second quarter:
- Corona revenue increased by 17%.
- Stella Artois advanced by 19%.
- Michelob Ultra grew by 21%.
These figures illustrate why AB InBev possesses one of the strongest portfolios in the global consumer-staples sector. Its premium brands can be distributed across numerous markets, allowing the company to benefit from shared marketing campaigns, sponsorships and distribution infrastructure.
Corona remains one of the company’s most important global assets. Stella Artois provides exposure to the premium lager segment, while Michelob Ultra has established a distinctive position around active lifestyles and lower-calorie consumption.
The ability of these brands to grow significantly faster than the wider beer market supports both revenue per hectolitre and margins. It also reduces AB InBev’s dependence on mainstream domestic labels, where pricing power is usually weaker.
Latin America is leading the recovery
Latin America remains the strongest part of AB InBev’s current investment case.
Mexico
Volumes in Mexico increased by 4.7% during the quarter. Revenue from AB InBev’s core beer portfolio recorded high-single-digit growth, supported by brands including Modelo and Pacifico.
The Mexican business also generated a normalised EBITDA margin of approximately 50.3%, demonstrating the value of strong local brands, efficient distribution and favourable market structure.
Mexico offers an attractive combination of population growth, brand loyalty and premiumisation. However, its importance also creates concentration risk: a major economic or regulatory deterioration in the country would have a noticeable effect on group earnings.
Colombia and Ecuador
AB InBev reported record volumes in Colombia, with double-digit revenue growth. Ecuador also contributed positively.
These markets demonstrate the value of the company’s extensive direct-distribution network. Beer consumption remains closely linked to social occasions, and AB InBev’s scale gives it access to hundreds of thousands of traditional retailers, bars and restaurants.
Brazil
Brazilian beer volumes returned to growth during the quarter, accompanied by market-share gains. This is encouraging after periods of weather disruption and consumer weakness.
Brazil is one of AB InBev’s most important markets, but it is also highly competitive and economically volatile. A sustained Brazilian recovery would materially strengthen the group’s overall volume trajectory.
China remains the largest obstacle
The clearest weakness in the second-quarter report was China, where volumes declined by 9.7%.
China has become a difficult market for international consumer companies. Weak domestic demand, cautious household spending and intense local competition have affected beer consumption, particularly in restaurants and nightlife venues.
AB InBev has historically focused on premium and super-premium beer in China. This strategy offers attractive margins during periods of rising discretionary spending, but it also leaves the company exposed when consumers trade down or reduce visits to entertainment venues.
A genuine global recovery will therefore require Chinese volumes to stabilise. Investors should look for evidence that the rate of decline is moderating over the next several quarters.
Until then, China is likely to remain one of the principal arguments supporting a cautious valuation.
The United States is still challenging
Conditions also remain difficult in the United States.
The American beer market faces several structural pressures, including changing consumer preferences, greater competition from spirits and ready-to-drink beverages, and moderation in alcohol consumption among some younger consumers.
AB InBev has made progress rebuilding commercial momentum through Michelob Ultra, Busch Light and major sporting partnerships. Michelob Ultra is particularly important because it gives the company exposure to consumers seeking lighter products associated with sport and wellness.
Nevertheless, strong performance from one or two brands may not be enough to offset weakness elsewhere in the portfolio. Investors need to see sustained improvement in overall U.S. volumes and market share before declaring the American business fully recovered.
Can the World Cup create lasting growth?
AB InBev’s FIFA World Cup sponsorship provided a significant marketing platform in 2026. The company activated its brands across multiple markets and used the tournament to promote Corona, Budweiser and Michelob Ultra.
Large sporting events can increase beer consumption and improve brand visibility. They also allow a global producer to reuse marketing investments across dozens of markets.
However, the tournament should not be treated as a permanent growth driver. The early elimination of Brazil and Mexico reduced some of the expected benefit, while elevated marketing expenditure limited operating-margin expansion.
The key question is whether the company can retain customers acquired during the tournament after the promotional period ends. Investors should therefore compare second-half volumes with pre-tournament trends rather than evaluating the quarter in isolation.
Growth beyond traditional beer
AB InBev is attempting to reduce its reliance on conventional lager through several adjacent categories.
Its Beyond Beer division, which includes canned cocktails and other alcoholic beverages, recorded revenue growth of approximately 44% in the second quarter. Cutwater, the company’s ready-to-drink cocktail brand, had already produced 37% growth in Q1.
The company also reported strong growth in non-alcoholic beer. This segment could become strategically important as consumers seek moderation without abandoning established drinking occasions.
AB InBev’s global brands give it an advantage in this category. Products such as Corona Cero and Budweiser Zero can use existing brand recognition and distribution rather than building an audience from scratch.
These activities remain small relative to traditional beer, but they provide useful diversification and could become meaningful long-term growth drivers.
BEES is an underestimated asset
AB InBev’s digital business-to-business platform, BEES, connects retailers directly with the company and its distribution network.
During Q2, third-party gross merchandise value on BEES Marketplace increased by 50% to approximately $1.2 billion. The platform allows small retailers to order beer and other consumer products digitally, while providing AB InBev with better information about demand, inventory and purchasing behaviour.
BEES can generate value in several ways:
- Lower ordering and distribution costs.
- Improved retailer retention.
- More accurate demand forecasting.
- Increased sales of third-party products.
- Potential commission and advertising revenue.
The platform is unlikely to be valued separately by investors in the near term. However, it strengthens AB InBev’s distribution advantage and could progressively turn its sales network into a broader consumer-goods marketplace.
Why did the stock fall after good results?
AB InBev’s shares declined following the Q2 announcement despite results exceeding expectations.
Part of the reaction can be explained by expectations. The stock had already gained roughly one-third since the beginning of the year and was trading close to its 52-week high. Investors therefore demanded more than a conventional earnings beat.
Revenue increased by 5.6% and normalised EBITDA by 5.8%, indicating that the EBITDA margin was broadly stable. Increased sales and marketing spending prevented stronger operating leverage.
The negative reaction does not necessarily mean the results were poor. It suggests that a significant part of the initial recovery had already been reflected in the share price.
Debt is falling relative to earnings—but remains substantial
Debt continues to be one of the central considerations in any AB InBev stock analysis.
At the end of June 2026, net debt stood at approximately $64.2 billion, compared with $60.9 billion at the end of December. The increase was partly seasonal, and the more important leverage ratio continued to improve.
Net debt to EBITDA declined to 2.86 times, compared with 3.27 times one year earlier. AB InBev ultimately aims to bring leverage closer to two times.
The debt structure is relatively defensive: approximately 98% of the company’s bonds carry fixed interest rates, limiting its immediate exposure to changes in borrowing costs.
Improving free cash flow should allow the company to combine gradual debt reduction with shareholder returns. Nevertheless, the absolute debt burden remains large and limits financial flexibility during an economic downturn.
Buybacks are currently more important than the dividend
AB InBev has authorised a $6 billion share-repurchase programme and had completed approximately $1.9 billion of purchases by 24 July 2026.
Buybacks can create value when shares are undervalued, particularly as earnings and cash flow recover. Their effectiveness becomes less certain when the stock trades close to a multi-year high.
The company’s total dividend for the 2025 financial year amounted to €1.15 per share. At a share price near €75, this represents a yield of only about 1.5%.
AB InBev should therefore be viewed primarily as a capital-appreciation and deleveraging investment, rather than as a high-income stock.
Is AB InBev stock still attractively valued?
AB InBev shares were trading around €75 in Brussels at the end of July 2026, close to the top of their 52-week range of approximately €49 to €76.
Depending on the earnings measure used, the shares trade at roughly 19 to 21 times earnings. This is no longer a distressed valuation.
The premium can be justified if AB InBev delivers:
- Sustainable beer-volume growth.
- Further expansion of premium global brands.
- Stabilisation in China and the United States.
- Strong free-cash-flow conversion.
- Continued deleveraging.
- Earnings growth that outpaces revenue.
If volumes weaken after the World Cup and margins remain flat, the current valuation would leave less room for disappointment.
The bull case
The strongest investment arguments for AB InBev are:
- Beer volumes have now increased for two consecutive quarters.
- Corona, Stella Artois and Michelob Ultra continue to achieve double-digit international growth.
- Mexico, Colombia and Brazil offer attractive long-term consumption opportunities.
- Non-alcoholic beer and ready-to-drink products provide additional growth channels.
- BEES strengthens the company’s distribution advantage.
- Free cash flow and leverage metrics are improving.
- The $6 billion buyback can support earnings per share.
- Management continues to guide for 4% to 8% organic EBITDA growth in 2026.
If positive volumes combine with modest price increases and better operating leverage, earnings could continue growing faster than sales.
The bear case
The main risks are equally clear:
- Chinese volumes remain deeply negative.
- The U.S. beer market may face structural rather than cyclical weakness.
- World Cup-related demand may fade during the second half.
- Greater marketing expenditure could prevent margin expansion.
- The company still carries more than $60 billion of net debt.
- Currency volatility can reduce the value of emerging-market earnings.
- Commodity, aluminium and logistics costs could pressure margins.
- The stock’s strong rally has reduced its valuation margin of safety.
- Regulatory changes and health-conscious consumption trends may limit long-term alcohol demand.
Verdict: the recovery has begun, but it is not yet truly global
AB InBev’s first-half performance supports the view that the global beer cycle is improving. Two consecutive quarters of beer-volume growth, strong international brands and a recovery in important Latin American markets are meaningful developments.
But the term “global recovery” remains premature. China is still contracting sharply, the United States remains challenging and the 2026 World Cup created a temporary benefit that will be difficult to repeat.
AB InBev therefore looks like an early-stage recovery investment rather than a fully established growth story.
At approximately €75 per share, the market is already pricing in part of that improvement. Existing shareholders may find the combination of brand strength, cash generation and deleveraging attractive. New investors, however, should recognise that the valuation now requires consistent execution.
The next major test will be whether AB InBev can maintain positive volumes after the World Cup while stabilising China, improving the United States and converting revenue growth into stronger margins.
What investors should monitor next
AB InBev is scheduled to publish its third-quarter results on 29 October 2026. AB InBev events calendar
Investors should focus on:
- Group beer-volume growth.
- The rate of decline in China.
- U.S. volumes and market share.
- Post-World Cup demand in Latin America.
- EBITDA-margin development.
- Free-cash-flow conversion.
- Net debt to EBITDA.
- Growth of Corona, Stella Artois and Michelob Ultra.
- Progress in non-alcoholic beer and Beyond Beer.
- Execution of the share-buyback programme.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial circumstances before buying or selling securities.
